Population Statistics 

Population Statistics

Area	Population
Electoral Area	2001	2006	2011	2016	2021	2001-2006 % change	2006-2011 % change	2011-2016 % change	2016-2021 % change
A	6,423	6,751	6,908	7,058	7,481	5.1%	2.3%	2.2%	6.0%
B	3,522	4,050	4,045	4,033	4,500	15.0%	-0.1%	-0.3%	11.6%
C a	1,932	2,508	2,834	2,808	3,344	29.8%	13.0%	-0.9%	19.1%
E	4,820	5,462	5,674	6,125	6,765	13.3%	3.9%	7.9%	10.4%
F	5,546	6,680	7,422	7,724	8,216	20.4%	11.1%	4.1%	6.4%
G b	6,113	7,023	7,158	7,465	8,109	14.9%	1.9%	4.3%	8.6%
H	3,108	3,474	3,509	3,884	4,291	11.8%	1.0%	10.7%	10.5%
Electoral Area Total	31,464	35,948	37,550	39,097	42,709	14.3%	4.5%	4.1%	9.2%

 

Population statistics

Area	Population
Municipalities	2001	2006	2011	2016	2021	2001-2006 % change	2006-2011 % change	2011-2016 % change	2016-2021 % change
Nanaimo	73,000	78,692	83,810	90,504	99,863	7.8%	6.5%	8.0%	10.3%
Parksville	10,323	10,993	11,977	12,514	13,642	6.5%	9.0%	4.5%	9.0%
Lantzville a	3,653	3,661	3,601	3,605	3,817	0.2%	-1.6%	0.1%	5.9%
Qualicum Beach b	7,849	8,502	8,687	8,943	9,303	8.3%	2.2%	2.9%	4.0%
Municipalities Total	94,825	101,848	108,075	115,566	126,625	7.4%	6.1%	6.9%	9.6%

 

Population statistics

Area	Population
First Nation Reserves	2001	2006	2011	2016	2021	2001-2006 % change	2006-2011 % change	2011-2016 % change	2016-2021 % change
Snuyneymuxw 1	238	279	377	360	386	17.2%	35.1%	-4.5%	7.2%
Snuyneymuxw 2	20	21	26	20	37	5.0%	23.8%	-23.1%	85.0%
Snuyneymuxw 3	33	50	81	92	67	51.5%	62.0%	13.6%	-27.2%
Snuyneymuxw 4	158	208	180	259	219	31.6%	-13.5%	43.9%	-15.4%
Nanoose	207	191	204	230	245	-7.7%	6.8%	12.7%	6.5%
Qualicum	71	86	81	74	82	21.1%	-5.8%	-8.6%	10.8%
First Nations Total	727	835	949	1,035	1,036	14.9%	13.7%	9.1%	0.1%

 

Population statistics

Area
RDN	2001	2006	2011	2016	2021	2001-2006 % change	2006-2011 % change	2011-2016 % change	2016-2021 % change
Total Population c	127,016	138,631	146,574	155,698	170,367	9.1%	5.7%	6.2%	9.4%

 

Source: Statistics Canada, www.statcan.gc.ca (2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 Canadian Census)

The 2001 population is adjusted to reflect that Area D was incorporated into Area C and Lantzville. The 2001 population is adjusted to take into account boundary changes between the 2001 and 2006 Censuses 

• Nanaimo Regional District

Electoral Areas: 

• Electoral Area A
• Electoral Area B
• Electoral Area C
• Electoral Area E
• Electoral Area F
• Electoral Area G
• Electoral Area H 

Municipalities:

• Nanaimo
• Parksville
• Lantzville 
• Qualicum Beach 

First Nation Reserves:

• Snuyneymuxw 1
• Snuyneymuxw 2
• Snuyneymuxw 3
• Snuyneymuxw 4
• Nanoose
• Qualicum 

The population of the region increased from 77,624 residents in 1981 to 170,367 residents in 2021. This means an increase of 119% during that time at a growth rate of approximately 3 per cent per year, on average.

Population growth rates in the Regional District have fluctuated over the past 40 years during different census periods. These highs and lows are the result of a range of factors including migration, aging as well as births and deaths.

Population statistics

Census Year	Estimated Population	Census Period	Census Period Growth Rate (%)	Average Annual Growth Rate (%)
1981	77,624	1976-1981	25	5
1986	82,714	1981-1986	7	1.4
1991	102,411	1986-1991	24	4.8
1996	121,783	1991-1996	19	3.8
2001	127,016	1996-2001	4	0.8
2006	138,631	2001-2006	9	1.8
2011	146,574	2006-2011	6	1.2
2016	155,698	2011-2016	6	1.2
2021	170,367	2016-2021	9	1.8
Source: Statistics Canada

 The Regional Housing Needs Report, completed in 2020, includes population growth for the region over the next 20 years. The original projections were based on the 2016 Census Year and has since been updated given the release of 2021 Census Year data.

These projects represent the region’s current growth path allowing for some adjustments in national growth. Given annual growth rates may vary between rural and urban areas, a baseline and High Growth Scenario is provided, The Baseline Scenario is considered representative of the region.

Baseline Scenario is based on 1.1 % growth per year, showing an increase from 172,453 people in 2021 to 185,819 in 2026, and an estimated 216,008 people by 2041. 

High Growth Scenario assumes a higher rate of net migration with a growth rate of 1.7 per cent annually. Under this scenario, the region’s population is estimated to increase from 172,453 people in 2021 to 190,640 in 2026, and to an estimated 239,476 people by 2041.

Note, the population projections are based on the 2021 Census Year, adjusted to account for “net Census undercoverage”. Undercoverage is the percentage of the population that is missed by the Census (balanced against those who are double counted).

Updated population projections (2021-2041) prepared by Vann Struth Consulting Group for the RDN:

Baseline Scenario

	2021	2026	2031	2036	2041	Growth, 2021-2041	Average Annual Change, 2021-2041	Average Annual Growth Rate
Population	172,453	185,819	196,752	206,715	216,008	43,55	2,178	1.1%
Age 0 to 14	21,367	22,254	22,286	22,639	23,220	1,853	93	0.4%
Age 15 to 24	15,529	16,432	18,353	19,035	19,366	3,837	192	1.1%
Age 25 to 34	18,541	18,613	17,807	18,685	20,780	2,239	112	0.6%
Age 35 to 44	19,728	23,056	24,370	24,486	23,930	4,212	221	1.0%
Age 45 to 54	19,536	20,894	24,410	27,710	29,249	9,713	486	2.0%
Age 55 to 64	27,128	25,452	24,265	25,619	29,259	2,130	107	0.4%
Age 65 to 74	29,142	31,457	31,595	30,097	29,286	144	7	0.0%
Age 75 to 84	15,720	21,100	25,300	27,324	27,324	11,604	580	2.8%
Age 85+	5,763	6,561	8,366	11,322	13,585	7,822	391	4.4%

 High Growth Scenario

	2021	2026	2031	2036	2041	Growth, 2021-2041	Average Annual Change, 2021-2041	Average Annual Growth Rate
Population	172,453	190,640	207,786	223,987	239,476	67,023	3,351	1.7%
Age 0 to 14	21,367	23,168	24,228	25,450	26,776	5,409	270,	1.1%
Age 15 to 24	15,529	17,058	19,778	21,267	22,366	6,837	342	1.8%
Age 25 to 34	18,541	19,238	19,205	20,856	23,758	5,217	261	1.2%
Age 35 to 44	19,728	23,687	25,799	26,700	26,917	7,189	359	1.6%
Age 45 to 54	19,536	21,523	25,834	29,924	32,246	12,710	635	2.5%
Age 55 to 64	27,128	26,079	25,676	27,802	32,206	5,078	254	0.9%
Age 65 to 74	29,142	32,076	32,971	32,203	32,107	2,965	148	0.5%
Age 75 to 84	15,720	21,250	25,928	28,371	29,165	13,445	672	3.1%
Age 85+	5,763	6,561	8,366	11,414	13,935	8,173	409	4.5%

• 2021 Regional District of Nanaimo Census Profile 
• 2016 Regional District of Nanaimo Census Profile
• 2011 Regional District of Nanaimo Census Profile
• 2021 Regional District of Nanaimo Census Map 
• 2021 to 2024 Regional Population, Housing and Employment Projections